30% — Inter Kashi FC vs. North East United FC - More Markets
Polymarket 32% · Kalshi 46% · 20 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 16:54:41 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 14pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
This market reflects the aggregated probability that Inter Kashi FC will defeat North East United FC by a specific margin in an upcoming match. The 32% probability masks a significant pricing disagreement across venues: Kalshi prices the outcome at 11% while Polymarket values it at 76%, creating a 65-percentage-point spread. This divergence suggests traders on different platforms have reached different conclusions about team form, historical matchups, or specific betting rules differences. The probability will resolve when the match concludes, with the final outcome determined by the actual margin of victory. The extreme gap between platforms indicates either one market has identified an analytical edge, or the contracts are measuring subtly different conditions. Key drivers include recent performance records, head-to-head history, injury status, and home-field advantage considerations.

Key factors:
- Polymarket-Kalshi spread of 65 percentage points indicates material disagreement on contract specifications or team likelihood
- Kalshi contracts specify Republican margin thresholds (1+ and 3+ percentage points) with volume under $1,500 per contract in 24 hours
- Polymarket contract focuses on NYC FC vs D.C. United with 76-cent pricing and $271 volume, suggesting different sport or match entirely
- Cross-venue data suggests possible contract definition misalignment rather than unified market signal
- Low individual contract volumes ($271-$1,403 daily) indicate limited liquidity and potential for wide bid-ask spreads on both platforms

Contracts:
- Will a protest within the United States that draws a combined estimated attendance of at least 250,000 people across all locations be confirmed?: May 2026 — 20¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 16%)
- United States vs. Paraguay: United States — 48¢ Polymarket $298 (weight 13%)
- Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: Incheon United FC — 29¢ Polymarket $253 (weight 13%)
- Will Manchester United men's soccer win at least 5 games in a row this year?: 5+ wins in a row — 24¢ Kalshi $240 (weight 12%)
- Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts — 11¢ Kalshi $75 (weight 10%)
- Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5 — 24¢ Polymarket $29 (weight 8%)
- Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Incheon United FC (-2.5) — 3¢ Polymarket $11 (weight 6%)
- United States vs. Paraguay: Draw (United States vs. Paraguay) — 27¢ Polymarket $7 (weight 5%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/inter-kashi-fc-vs-north-east-united-fc-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Inter%20Kashi%20FC%20vs.%20North%20East%20United%20FC%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev