39% — Inter Kashi FC vs. North East United FC - More Markets
Kalshi 39% · 10 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 19:09:23 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects the aggregated probability that Inter Kashi FC will defeat North East United FC by a specific margin in an upcoming match. The 32% probability masks a significant pricing disagreement across venues: Kalshi prices the outcome at 11% while Polymarket values it at 76%, creating a 65-percentage-point spread. This divergence suggests traders on different platforms have reached different conclusions about team form, historical matchups, or specific betting rules differences. The probability will resolve when the match concludes, with the final outcome determined by the actual margin of victory. The extreme gap between platforms indicates either one market has identified an analytical edge, or the contracts are measuring subtly different conditions. Key drivers include recent performance records, head-to-head history, injury status, and home-field advantage considerations.

Key factors:
- Polymarket-Kalshi spread of 65 percentage points indicates material disagreement on contract specifications or team likelihood
- Kalshi contracts specify Republican margin thresholds (1+ and 3+ percentage points) with volume under $1,500 per contract in 24 hours
- Polymarket contract focuses on NYC FC vs D.C. United with 76-cent pricing and $271 volume, suggesting different sport or match entirely
- Cross-venue data suggests possible contract definition misalignment rather than unified market signal
- Low individual contract volumes ($271-$1,403 daily) indicate limited liquidity and potential for wide bid-ask spreads on both platforms

Contracts:
- Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 13 percentage points?: Democrats, 13+ pts — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Manchester United men's soccer win at least 5 games in a row this year?: 5+ wins in a row — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 7 percentage points?: Democrats, 7+ pts — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 5 percentage points?: Democrats, 5+ pts — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T18:20:48.979Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/inter-kashi-fc-vs-north-east-united-fc-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Inter%20Kashi%20FC%20vs.%20North%20East%20United%20FC%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev