30% — Inter Miami CF vs. New England Revolution Kalshi 30% · 6 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 08:45:14 UTC Why this matters: This 28% probability represents the chance that Inter Miami CF will defeat the New England Revolution in an upcoming match. The aggregated estimate masks a significant divergence between betting venues: Kalshi traders price New England's chances at 33%, while Polymarket bettors are notably more pessimistic at 16%. This 17-percentage-point gap suggests disagreement about either team's current form, roster composition, or recent performance metrics. The probability would likely move upward if New England secures key player acquisitions or demonstrates improved performance in upcoming fixtures, and downward if Inter Miami shows strong recent results or injury concerns plague New England. The primary catalyst will be match-day conditions, including confirmed lineups and any late-breaking roster news closer to kickoff. Key factors: - Kalshi contracts price New England 17 percentage points higher than Polymarket, indicating material disagreement about matchup fundamentals - Recent high-volume trading on Kalshi for New England head coach selection (Mike Vrabel 75¢, Josh McDaniels 15¢) suggests active reassessment of team composition and coaching - A.J. Brown priced at 80¢ to join New England on Kalshi indicates market expectation of significant roster changes that could affect competitive balance - Cross-venue discrepancy (33% vs. 16%) is larger than typical market noise, suggesting different data interpretation or time-lag effects between venues - New England's 3¢ 2027 championship probability on Kalshi suggests structural concerns about medium-term competitiveness despite near-term matchup odds Contracts: - Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel — 92¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 81%) - Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 13%) - Where will Neymar go next?: Inter Miami — 10¢ Kalshi $225 (weight 3%) - Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026?: Before 2027 — 31¢ Kalshi $194 (weight 2%) - Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England — 7¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 1%) - Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England — 36¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T08:20:50.819Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/inter-miami-cf-vs-new-england-revolution Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Inter%20Miami%20CF%20vs.%20New%20England%20Revolution Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev