30% — Inter Miami CF vs. New England Revolution - More Markets
Kalshi 30% · 6 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 12:26:45 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability measures the likelihood that Inter Miami CF will defeat New England Revolution in an upcoming match. The 31% aggregated estimate reflects disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders price Miami's win chances at 36%, while Polymarket participants assess it at 22%. The 14-percentage-point gap suggests uncertainty about team form, injury status, and recent performance metrics. The probability would move higher if Miami shows strong home-field performance or New England enters the match with key absences. It would decline if New England demonstrates recent offensive momentum or Miami faces defensive injuries. Resolution depends on the match outcome on the scheduled game date.

Key factors:
- Current Miami offensive efficiency and goal-scoring rate over the past 10 matches versus New England's defensive metrics
- Injury report status for both teams' key players within 48 hours of kickoff
- Head-to-head historical performance and goals conceded/scored in recent meetings between these squads
- Home-field advantage factor: whether the match is played in Miami or Boston, and historical performance differential at each venue
- Vegas implied win probability for this matchup, if publicly available, as a baseline against prediction market pricing

Contracts:
- Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel — 92¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 68%)
- Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 14%)
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026?: Before 2027 — 28¢ Kalshi $929 (weight 13%)
- Where will Neymar go next?: Inter Miami — 10¢ Kalshi $315 (weight 4%)
- Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England — 7¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 1%)
- Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England — 36¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:51.378Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/inter-miami-cf-vs-new-england-revolution-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Inter%20Miami%20CF%20vs.%20New%20England%20Revolution%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev