10% — Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC
Kalshi 10% · 1 contracts · $315 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 12:25:41 UTC

Why this matters:
This 3% probability reflects the market's assessment that Neymar will transfer to Inter Miami CF rather than Orlando City SC as his next club. The estimate is based on limited trading activity on one contract, indicating low conviction or interest in this specific outcome. Neymar's transfer destination depends on multiple variables: his current club's willingness to sell, Inter Miami's financial capacity and interest, Orlando City's competitive bid, and Neymar's own preferences. The probability would shift significantly based on official statements from Neymar, his agent, or either MLS club regarding transfer intentions. Any completed transfer announcement would resolve this market, while negotiations or media reports could cause substantial repricing before a final decision emerges.

Key factors:
- Limited market depth with only one contract showing 3-cent pricing and zero 24-hour trading volume suggests low market confidence in this specific outcome
- Neymar's current contractual status and stated transfer preferences have not been publicly disclosed as of June 2026, creating fundamental uncertainty about whether he intends to move to MLS at all
- Inter Miami CF's salary cap constraints and recent roster construction may affect their capacity to sign Neymar compared to other potential destinations
- Orlando City SC's financial resources and recent spending patterns relative to Inter Miami would influence the likelihood of one club outbidding the other
- Any official statement from Neymar's agent or either club indicating genuine interest in signing him would create significant repricing in this market

Contracts:
- Where will Neymar go next?: Inter Miami — 10¢ Kalshi $315 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:51.297Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/inter-miami-cf-vs-orlando-city-sc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Inter%20Miami%20CF%20vs.%20Orlando%20City%20SC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev