97% — Internet Access restored in Iran by...
Leader: September 30 at 97% · Polymarket 97% · 2 contracts · $91K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:43:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Internet Access restored in Iran by...?: September 30 — 97¢ Polymarket $31K (weight 34%)
- Internet Access restored in Iran by...?: December 31 — 96¢ Polymarket $60K (weight 66%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.346Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/internet-access-restored-iran
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Internet%20Access%20restored%20in%20Iran%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev