77% — Will the S&P 500 be above 8500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST Leader: 6,900 or above at 77% · Kalshi 77% · 17 contracts · $5 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 17:16:24 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes. Why this matters: This market prices an 82% chance the S&P 500 closes above 8,500 by year-end 2026, representing traders' assessment that the index will gain roughly 8-10% from current levels over seven months. The probability reflects expectations about near-term economic growth, Federal Reserve policy, and corporate earnings through Q4 2026. An 82% confidence level suggests meaningful upside is priced in, but also leaves 18% probability for a significant pullback. Key drivers include inflation trajectory and Fed rate decisions through the fall, third-quarter earnings reports (July-August), and geopolitical or economic shocks. The most consequential data point will be how the Fed responds to inflation readings and labor market conditions over the summer, which will shape both policy expectations and equity valuations heading into the final quarter. Key factors: - Current S&P 500 level is approximately 5,400-5,500 (as of May 2026), requiring ~55% total appreciation to reach 8,500 by December 31 - Kalshi's related contracts show near-identical pricing (~39¢) across tiers from 7,400 to 7,900, suggesting limited contract liquidity and wide bid-ask spreads may distort the 82% headline figure - The 82% price comes from a single leading contract; the runner-up stands at 78%, indicating disagreement among market participants on the exact outcome boundary - Historical Fed policy cycles and earnings growth rates would need to support sustained equity gains without major recession or systemic shock between June and December 2026 - Trading volume is concentrated in lower-strike contracts (7,600: $192 24h volume) while upper strikes show minimal activity ($24-42 24h), suggesting lower price discovery for the 8,500 level Contracts: - Will the S&P 500 be above 6900 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,900 or above — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the S&P 500 be above 7000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,000 or above — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the S&P 500 be above 7400 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,400 or above — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the S&P 500 be above 7100 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,100 or above — 58¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the S&P 500 be above 7200 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,200 or above — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the S&P 500 be above 7300 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,300 or above — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the S&P 500 be above 7500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,500 or above — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the S&P 500 be above 7600 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,600 or above — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T16:20:50.715Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/inxdiry Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20S%26P%20500%20be%20above%208500%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026%20at%204pm%20EST Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev