14% — Will the S&P 500 be between 6000 and 6199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST Leader: 8,000 to 8,199.99 at 14% · Kalshi 14% · 7 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 17:26:20 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract pays off if the S&P 500 closes between 6000 and 6199.99 on December 31, 2026, implying a 14% probability traders assign to that outcome. The market is currently pricing in significantly higher year-end levels, with the modal outcomes clustering around 6600-6800 and substantial probability mass extending toward 7000-7200. A 14% probability for the 6000-6199 range reflects trader expectations that the index would need to either stagnate or decline from current levels over the next five months. Resolution depends entirely on the S&P 500's price at market close on December 31, 2026. Key drivers include corporate earnings trajectories, Federal Reserve policy decisions through year-end, and macroeconomic data releases that shape rate expectations. Any significant recession, market correction, or shift in Fed policy would compress valuations and increase the likelihood of this lower band outcome. Key factors: - Current S&P 500 level relative to 6000-6199 range: higher price levels reduce the probability this band is reached at year-end - Implied market expectations from competing contracts: 4% probability assigned to 6600-6799 band suggests upside bias, making lower bands less likely - Fed rate path through 2026: higher-for-longer policy or accelerating hikes would increase recession risk and lower equity valuations - Corporate earnings growth trajectory: slowing or negative revisions would pressure multiples and favor lower year-end levels - Market volatility and drawdown magnitude: a severe 15-20% correction from current levels would materially increase this outcome's probability Contracts: - Will the S&P 500 be between 8000 and 8199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,000 to 8,199.99 — 14¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 58%) - Will the S&P 500 be between 7800 and 7999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,800 to 7,999.99 — 13¢ Kalshi $874 (weight 11%) - Will the S&P 500 be between 8200 and 8399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,200 to 8,399.99 — 10¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 30%) - Will the S&P 500 be between 7200 and 7399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,200 to 7,399.99 — 4¢ Kalshi $131 (weight 2%) - Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,000 to 7,199.99 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the S&P 500 be between 6600 and 6799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,600 to 6,799.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 0%) - Will the S&P 500 be between 6200 and 6399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,200 to 6,399.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T17:20:53.599Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/inxy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20S%26P%20500%20be%20between%206000%20and%206199.99%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026%20at%204pm%20EST Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev