13% — Will the S&P 500 be between 6000 and 6199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST Leader: 7,800 to 7,999.99 at 13% · Kalshi 13% · 10 contracts · $15K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:36 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract reflects a 14% probability that the S&P 500 closes between 6,000 and 6,199.99 on December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in a substantially higher year-end close, with the highest probability (14%) centered around 7,600–7,799.99, suggesting traders expect continued gains over the next seven months. The lower 6,000–6,199 range represents a significant drawdown scenario—roughly 15% below current levels. This probability could shift based on macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy signals, corporate earnings trends, and broader market volatility. The resolution point is fixed: the S&P 500's official closing price on December 31, 2026 at 4pm EST. Key factors: - Current S&P 500 level (approximately 5,200–5,300 range as of early May 2026) relative to the 6,000–6,199 target, implying modest upside is required for this contract to resolve yes - Distribution of probabilities across all outcome buckets shows median expectations around 7,000–7,400, leaving the 6,000–6,199 range in the lower tail of outcomes - Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory and inflation data through Q3 and Q4 2026 will materially influence whether the market reaches or retreats from this price level - Earnings growth and valuations through mid-2026 earnings seasons (Q1 reports already underway, Q2 in July) will test whether current forward expectations remain plausible - Market volatility regimes and geopolitical or economic shocks between now and year-end could compress or expand the probability of lower-range outcomes Contracts: - Will the S&P 500 be between 7800 and 7999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,800 to 7,999.99 — 13¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 46%) - Will the S&P 500 be between 7600 and 7799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,600 to 7,799.99 — 11¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 9%) - Will the S&P 500 be between 8000 and 8199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,000 to 8,199.99 — 11¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 8%) - Will the S&P 500 be between 8200 and 8399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,200 to 8,399.99 — 8¢ Kalshi $537 (weight 4%) - Will the S&P 500 be between 7400 and 7599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,400 to 7,599.99 — 7¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 18%) - Will the S&P 500 be between 7200 and 7399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,200 to 7,399.99 — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 10%) - Will the S&P 500 be between 6600 and 6799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,600 to 6,799.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $290 (weight 2%) - Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,000 to 7,199.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $218 (weight 2%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.460Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/inxy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20S%26P%20500%20be%20between%206000%20and%206199.99%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026%20at%204pm%20EST Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev