33% — IPL
Polymarket 33% · 6 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:37:24 UTC

Why this matters:
This 17% probability reflects the aggregate market assessment of whether a specific player will win the Orange Cap (leading run-scorer award) in the Indian Premier League tournament. The current season's performance data and remaining matches are the primary drivers of these odds. Early-season form, injury status, and team batting order changes directly influence which batsmen accumulate the most runs. The season concludes with the IPL final, which represents the last opportunity for players to add to their run totals and could dramatically shift the leader. Markets are currently spreading probability across multiple contenders, with no single player commanding dominant odds, suggesting competitive batting performances across franchises.

Key factors:
- Yashasvi Jaiswal at 6¢ shows minimal market confidence despite being listed, while Sai Sudharsan at 32¢ represents the highest single-contract probability among top contenders
- High 24-hour trading volumes ($100-114) on Jaiswal, Sooryavanshi, and Kishan indicate active market engagement with uncertainty about the outcome
- The distribution across five named contenders with probabilities ranging from 6¢ to 32¢ suggests no clear statistical favorite and competitive scoring dynamics
- Orange Cap outcomes depend on remaining matches scheduled, player availability, and team strategies that prioritize batting depth
- The 17% aggregate masks significant probability mass: the five listed contracts total approximately 93¢, with 7¢ distributed across other potential winners

Contracts:
- IPL: Orange Cap Winner: Vaibhav Sooryavanshi — 37¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 50%)
- IPL: Orange Cap Winner: Sai Sudharsan — 26¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 25%)
- IPL: Orange Cap Winner: Shubman Gill — 38¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 20%)
- IPL: Purple Cap Winner: Mohammed Sira — 3¢ Polymarket $393 (weight 5%)
- IPL: Purple Cap Winner: Kagiso Rabada — 63¢ Polymarket $48 (weight 1%)
- IPL: Purple Cap Winner: Bhuvneshwar Kumar — 32¢ Polymarket $18 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:09.746Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ipl
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=IPL
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev