52% — IPL Game Predictions
Leader: Rajasthan Royals at 52% · Kalshi 52% · 2 contracts · $221K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:42:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations for outcomes in ongoing Indian Premier League matches during the 2026 season. The 41% aggregate reflects uncertainty across multiple concurrent matchups, with trading concentrated on the Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals contest showing near-parity at 51-48 cents. Market participants are pricing in team form, player availability, and venue conditions as matches unfold. The resolution depends entirely on match results as games are played over the coming days, with each fixture providing definitive outcomes that will either confirm or contradict current pricing. Trading volume concentration in the MI-RR matchup ($14,826 in 24h) versus lower liquidity in other contracts suggests some disagreement about relative probabilities across different pairings.

Key factors:
- Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals contract shows near-even split (51-48 cents) despite being highest-volume contract, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus among traders
- Kolkata Knight Riders priced at 56 cents versus Delhi Capitals at 42 cents suggests market confidence in KKR, but volume remains relatively modest at $2,228
- Royal Challengers Bengaluru at 36 cents against Gujarat Titans reflects lowest confidence tier, though contract shows minimal trading activity ($302)
- Current spread across contracts shows no single matchup dominates market conviction, with probabilities ranging from 36-56 cents
- Each fixture will resolve within days, providing objective match outcomes that will immediately shift related contract values

Contracts:
- Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Winner?: Rajasthan Royals — 52¢ Kalshi $133K (weight 60%)
- Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Winner?: Gujarat Titans — 48¢ Kalshi $88K (weight 40%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T19:20:12.618Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "52% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ipl-games
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=IPL%20Game%20Predictions
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev