26% — Who will win IPL Orange Cap
Leader: Vaibhav Sooryavanshi at 26% · Kalshi 26% · 4 contracts · $589 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:41:26 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The Orange Cap recognizes the highest run-scorer across an IPL season. Vaibhav Sooryavanshi is currently priced at 28% to win this award, reflecting modest confidence given the abundance of established heavy hitters in the league. The probability is driven by Sooryavanshi's recent form and playing opportunities, though established batsmen like Shubman Gill (3%) and others command significantly lower odds. The award will be determined by aggregate performance across all IPL matches in the 2026 season, with outcomes becoming clearer as more games are played and individual run tallies accumulate. Trading volume remains minimal (zero 24-hour volume), suggesting limited market activity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads. Resolution depends entirely on final season statistics, making the projection increasingly reliable as the tournament progresses.

Key factors:
- Vaibhav Sooryavanshi's 28% price substantially exceeds those of established batsmen like Shubman Gill (3%), indicating market confidence in his current form relative to peers
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all four contracts suggests low liquidity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect recent matches or roster changes
- The Orange Cap winner typically accumulates 600+ runs over an IPL season; Sooryavanshi's eligibility, team role, and playing time directly determine his run-scoring ceiling
- Injury to Sooryavanshi or reduced playing time due to team strategy would mechanically lower his probability as fewer matches reduce available scoring opportunities
- As the season progresses, actual run totals become observable data, making the market increasingly efficient and less subject to speculation

Contracts:
- Who will win IPL Orange Cap?: Vaibhav Sooryavanshi — 26¢ Kalshi $163 (weight 28%)
- Who will win IPL Orange Cap?: Sai Sudharsan — 18¢ Kalshi $423 (weight 72%)
- Who will win IPL Orange Cap?: Shubman Gill — 11¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%)
- Who will win IPL Orange Cap?: Virat Kohli — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.106Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iplorangecap
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20IPL%20Orange%20Cap
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev