94% — IPL Playoff Qualifiers
Leader: Sunrisers Hyderabad at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 7 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:23 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market currently prices Punjab Kings at a 94% probability of qualifying for the IPL playoffs, reflecting their competitive position with roughly three weeks remaining in the 2026 IPL season. This high probability indicates the market views Punjab as having a substantial cushion in the standings relative to teams fighting for the final playoff spots. The main drivers are Punjab's current net run rate, their remaining fixture schedule, and the performance of competing teams like Sunrisers Hyderabad (84%) and Royal Challengers Bengaluru (88%). The probability will fluctuate based on match results in early May, particularly how Punjab performs against upper-table teams and whether mid-pack teams close the gap in wins. The IPL regular season concludes around May 25–26, at which point the four playoff qualifiers will be mathematically determined, fully resolving this contract.

Key factors:
- Punjab Kings' current position in the points table and net run rate relative to the fifth-place team
- Strength of Punjab's remaining fixtures against teams above and below them in the standings
- Head-to-head records and recent form trends for the five teams competing for the fourth playoff spot
- Changes to team composition due to injuries or roster adjustments before the trade/replacement deadline if applicable
- Volume concentration on Punjab (94¢, $10K+ daily volume) versus scattered liquidity on alternatives, suggesting consensus but limited arbitrage pressure

Contracts:
- IPL Playoff Qualifiers: Sunrisers Hyderabad — 94¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 28%)
- IPL Playoff Qualifiers: Punjab Kings — 90¢ Kalshi $293 (weight 3%)
- IPL Playoff Qualifiers: Royal Challengers Bengaluru — 85¢ Kalshi $365 (weight 3%)
- IPL Playoff Qualifiers: Gujarat Titans — 49¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 14%)
- IPL Playoff Qualifiers: Rajasthan Royals — 45¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 16%)
- IPL Playoff Qualifiers: Chennai Super Kings — 6¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 15%)
- IPL Playoff Qualifiers: Kolkata Knight Riders — 5¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 22%)

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iplplayoff
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=IPL%20Playoff%20Qualifiers
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev