93% — Who will IPO before 2027
Leader: Shein at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 19 contracts · $19K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 17:12:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market aggregates predictions on whether Anthropic will complete an IPO before the end of 2026, currently priced at 76% probability. The high likelihood reflects strong investor demand for AI-focused companies and Anthropic's established market position, though venture-backed firms often delay public offerings when private funding remains abundant. The probability could shift materially based on macroeconomic conditions, tech sector IPO sentiment, or explicit company statements about timing. A significant catalyst would be any announcement from Anthropic's leadership regarding IPO plans, or broader market moves affecting late-stage AI startup valuations. Secondary outcomes suggest competitors like Discord (53%) and OpenAI (27%) represent lower-probability alternatives.

Key factors:
- Anthropic's valuation and funding history: recent rounds at $15 billion+ valuation may influence readiness for public markets
- Regulatory environment: SEC oversight of AI companies and potential policy changes could affect IPO timing decisions
- Tech IPO market conditions: YTD 2026 IPO volumes, sector performance, and investor appetite for late-stage AI exits
- Competitive pressure: timing of rival AI company IPOs (particularly OpenAI or others) could accelerate or delay Anthropic's plans
- Company guidance: any official statements or investor communications about capital structure or public market plans from Anthropic leadership

Contracts:
- Who will IPO before 2027?: Shein — 93¢ Kalshi $129 (weight 1%)
- Who will IPO before 2027?: Anthropic — 84¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 31%)
- Who will IPO in 2026?: Oura — 76¢ Kalshi $108 (weight 1%)
- Who will IPO before 2027?: Discord — 32¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 29%)
- Who will IPO before 2027?: OpenAI — 24¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 12%)
- Who will IPO before 2027?: Kraken — 19¢ Kalshi $91 (weight 0%)
- Who will IPO in 2026?: DeepSeek — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will IPO before 2027?: Stripe — 11¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 11%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-11T16:20:50.156Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ipo
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20IPO%20before%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev