84% — Who will IPO before 2027 Leader: Anthropic at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 19 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 16:37:37 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes. Why this matters: This 27% probability reflects the chance that at least one major private technology company will complete an initial public offering by the end of 2026. Market pricing shows significant differentiation: Anthropic trades at 76 cents, suggesting elevated near-term IPO odds, while OpenAI at 47 cents indicates meaningful but uncertain near-term likelihood. The probability depends on two primary forces: company readiness and valuation preferences (whether founders and boards view public markets as favorable), and broader market conditions affecting IPO appetite. Key upcoming catalysts include quarterly earnings reports and any public statements from company leadership regarding capital plans. Economic conditions, interest rate expectations, and comparable technology IPO performance will influence whether companies proceed or defer offerings. Key factors: - Anthropic's 76-cent contract price implies market participants assess this company as most likely to IPO first, reflecting reported discussions with potential investors and stated capital-raising ambitions - OpenAI at 47 cents suggests meaningful uncertainty around timing despite its market prominence, potentially reflecting governance complexities and ongoing strategic decisions about corporate structure - Macro IPO market conditions: the aggregate 27% reflects relatively low confidence in near-term tech IPO activity, suggesting traders view current market appetite or company readiness as limited - Most other major private companies (Stripe, Anduril, Glean) trade below 10 cents, indicating consensus assigns them substantially lower probability despite their valuations and market positions - The 7-8 month remaining window to resolution (through end of 2026) compresses timing uncertainty; any company IPO filings in the next 2-3 months would materially shift probabilities Contracts: - Who will IPO before 2027?: Anthropic — 84¢ Kalshi $131 (weight 6%) - Who will IPO before 2027?: OpenAI — 67¢ Kalshi $147 (weight 7%) - Who will IPO before 2027?: Discord — 55¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 1%) - Who will IPO before 2027?: Kraken — 22¢ Kalshi $949 (weight 43%) - Who will IPO before 2027?: Shein — 19¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 2%) - Who will IPO before 2027?: Applied Intuition — 13¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 1%) - Who will IPO in 2026?: Beast Industries — 11¢ Kalshi $89 (weight 4%) - Who will IPO before 2027?: Stripe — 9¢ Kalshi $175 (weight 8%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T16:20:51.150Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ipo Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20IPO%20before%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev