13% — When will Anduril IPO
Leader: Before Jun 1, 2027 at 13% · Kalshi 13% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 14:22:23 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
An 18% probability indicates the market assesses a less-than-one-in-five chance that Anduril Industries will complete an IPO by the end of 2026. This reflects the typical timeline for defense technology companies preparing for public markets, which typically requires 12-24 months of preparation including regulatory filings and SEC review. The current level suggests skepticism about Anduril meeting a 2026 deadline, though the company has not publicly committed to this timeframe. Key drivers include the company's funding stage, existing regulatory scrutiny of defense contractors, and comparable timelines from similar companies. Market participants appear to be pricing in a higher probability of OpenAI or SpaceX IPOs before Anduril, based on those contracts trading notably higher. The main uncertainty would be resolved by either SEC filing announcements from Anduril or explicit public statements from leadership regarding IPO timing.

Key factors:
- Anduril has raised significant venture funding but has not announced formal IPO plans or SEC filing timeline as of mid-2026
- Defense technology companies face extended regulatory review periods; comparable contractors typically require 18+ months from announcement to market listing
- Comparable contracts show SpaceX before July 2026 at 79¢ and Anthropic IPO announcement before Nov 2026 at 72¢, suggesting market expects other tech IPOs ahead of Anduril
- Anduril's "before 2027" contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, indicating only ~8% probability even with a 6+ month window
- No scheduled dates, regulatory filings, or leadership statements in public record indicate imminent IPO process

Contracts:
- When will Anduril IPO?: Before Jun 1, 2027 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- When will Anduril IPO?: Before May 1, 2027 — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- When will Anduril IPO?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- When will Anduril IPO?: Before Apr 1, 2027 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- When will Anduril IPO?: Before Feb 1, 2027 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- When will Anduril IPO?: Before Mar 1, 2027 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.210Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ipoanduril
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=When%20will%20Anduril%20IPO
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev