22% — When will AppsFlyer IPO
Leader: Before Jun 1, 2027 at 22% · Kalshi 22% · 10 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 15:43:11 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets currently assign a 26% probability that AppsFlyer will complete an IPO by June 2026, based on the leading contract outcome. This reflects trader assessment that a near-term public offering is unlikely but possible. The probability is driven primarily by the lack of public IPO announcements or regulatory filings as of May 2026, offset by the company's scale (a major mobile attribution platform) and historical precedent of tech unicorns pursuing public markets. The main catalyst for resolution comes in just weeks: if AppsFlyer announces IPO plans or files with regulators before June 1, 2026, the probability would likely spike; conversely, if June passes without such signals, the market will shift focus to later timeframes. Broader tech IPO conditions and venture capital sentiment also influence the current discount.

Key factors:
- AppsFlyer has not publicly announced IPO intent or filed S-1 documentation as of May 2026
- The company operates in mobile analytics with significant enterprise customer base, a sector that has supported successful public offerings
- Current market probability (26%) is materially lower than probabilities for SpaceX (79% before July 2026) and Anthropic announcement (72-73% before Nov-Dec 2026), suggesting relative skepticism about AppsFlyer's immediate IPO timeline
- Tech IPO market conditions in 2026 and venture capital funding climate directly influence private company liquidity decisions
- June 1, 2026 represents an imminent binary decision point—either the company files/announces or the market reprices expectations to later periods

Contracts:
- When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Jun 1, 2027 — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before May 1, 2027 — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Apr 1, 2027 — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Mar 1, 2027 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Feb 1, 2027 — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Jul 1, 2026 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T15:20:51.372Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ipoappsflyer
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=When%20will%20AppsFlyer%20IPO
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev