91% — When will OpenAI IPO
Leader: Before Jun 1, 2027 at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 11 contracts · $428 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 39% probability reflects the market's assessment that OpenAI will complete an initial public offering before January 1, 2027—roughly eight months from now. The estimate sits between stronger confidence in Anthropic's IPO plans (72%) and weaker confidence in SpaceX timing (10-79% depending on the specific deadline). OpenAI's valuation has been a contentious issue, with the company and investors disagreeing on pricing, which could either accelerate or delay a public offering. The primary catalyst would be any official announcement from OpenAI's leadership regarding IPO timing or a regulatory filing. Near-term developments include decisions by other AI companies and market conditions for high-growth tech stocks, which influence both investor appetite and company readiness to go public.

Key factors:
- OpenAI and major stakeholders have not publicly announced IPO plans or filed preliminary documents as of early May 2026
- Recent valuations and fundraising rounds have shown disagreement between the company and investors, potentially delaying IPO readiness
- Comparable AI company IPO timelines (Anthropic at 72% probability for announcement before November 2026) provide market benchmarks
- The tech IPO market conditions and investor appetite for AI companies in mid-2026 directly affect timing feasibility
- Company profitability, revenue milestones, and governance structure must meet SEC requirements before any offering can proceed

Contracts:
- When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Jun 1, 2027 — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will OpenAI IPO?: Before May 1, 2027 — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Apr 1, 2027 — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Feb 1, 2027 — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Mar 1, 2027 — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 75¢ Kalshi $85 (weight 20%)
- When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will OpenAI IPO?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.803Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ipoopenai
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=When%20will%20OpenAI%20IPO
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev