55% — IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran
Polymarket 55% · 1 contracts · $1.5M volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 18:57:28 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's current assessment that Iran will prevail over New Zealand in an upcoming matchup. The 52% level suggests traders view this as a competitive contest with Iran holding a slight edge. Key drivers of this probability include the relative strength and recent form of each team, home-field advantage if applicable, and any roster or injury changes. The resolution will depend on the match outcome itself, which represents the primary catalyst that will settle this uncertainty. Current market depth shows moderate trading activity at this price level, reflecting genuine interest but not overwhelming confidence in either direction.

Key factors:
- The current odds place Iran as a marginal favorite at 52%, indicating traders assess this as nearly even competition rather than a decisive mismatch
- Recent head-to-head records and performance metrics between Iran and New Zealand in the relevant sport determine baseline expectations for the matchup
- Home-field advantage, if applicable, historically influences outcomes and would be priced into probability shifts
- Roster composition, key player availability, and recent form changes can shift probabilities significantly as match date approaches
- The $23,363 in 24-hour volume indicates moderate market liquidity, suggesting the 52% price reflects genuine competitive uncertainty rather than extreme confidence

Contracts:
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran — 55¢ Polymarket $1.5M (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-16T00:20:51.075Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "55% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ir-iran-vs-new-zealand-ir-iran
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=IR%20Iran%20vs.%20New%20Zealand%3A%20IR%20Iran
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev