22% — Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30
Polymarket 22% · 9 contracts · $188K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:14:26 UTC

Contracts:
- Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei — 68¢ Polymarket $54K (weight 29%)
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?: June 30 — 10¢ Polymarket $38K (weight 20%)
- Iran leader end of 2026?: Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf — 3¢ Polymarket $27K (weight 14%)
-  Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — 10¢ Polymarket $23K (weight 12%)
- Iran leader end of 2026?: No Head of State — 4¢ Polymarket $16K (weight 9%)
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?: December 31 — 36¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 7%)
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?: December 31 — 20¢ Polymarket $13K (weight 7%)
-  Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? — 43¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 1%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:12.003Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Iran%20agrees%20to%20end%20enrichment%20of%20uranium%20by%20April%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev