36% — Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...
Leader: December 31 at 36% · Polymarket 36% · 3 contracts · $76K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects trader expectations that Iran will formally agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026. Currently priced at 33%, it represents a roughly one-in-three chance of such an agreement within the next seven months. The level reflects both the difficulty of past nuclear negotiations with Iran and the potential for diplomatic reopening. Traders assign significantly lower odds to earlier deadlines (9-12% for May-June resolutions), suggesting skepticism about near-term breakthroughs. The main factors moving this probability are the status of US-Iran relations, whether diplomatic channels remain open, and whether economic incentives align for both parties. Any major geopolitical escalation or shift in US policy toward Iran would substantially affect these odds.

Key factors:
- Current US-Iran diplomatic engagement status and whether formal negotiations on nuclear stockpiles have resumed or are scheduled
- Historical pattern: previous JCPOA negotiations took 18+ months; shorter timelines require either dramatic policy shifts or pre-existing agreement frameworks
- Relative contract pricing shows traders price May-June resolutions at 9-12% versus 33% for December 31, indicating belief that any agreement requires multiple quarters of negotiation
- Economic and sanctions pressure on Iran versus willingness to engage—the tradeoff determines incentive alignment for surrendering rather than retaining enriched uranium
- Third-party verification mechanisms and international oversight requirements—technical feasibility of surrender logistics affects whether negotiations succeed by year-end

Contracts:
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?: December 31 — 36¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 18%)
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?: July 31 — 21¢ Polymarket $25K (weight 33%)
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?: June 30 — 10¢ Polymarket $37K (weight 49%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:08.889Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Iran%20agrees%20to%20surrender%20enriched%20uranium%20stockpile%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev