12% — Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31
Polymarket 12% · 1 contracts · $87K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:36:41 UTC

Why this matters:
This 10% probability reflects the market's assessment that Iran will formally agree to allow unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31—just six days away. The low probability reflects the absence of active negotiations or public statements from Iranian officials signaling such an agreement. Movement in this probability would depend on either a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough or new geopolitical pressure. The main catalyst is any official announcement from Iranian government representatives or a multilateral agreement addressing Hormuz shipping restrictions. Current market positioning suggests participants view an agreement within this timeframe as unlikely without unexpected diplomatic intervention.

Key factors:
- No public negotiations between Iran and international parties regarding Hormuz shipping access are currently reported as of late May 2026
- The six-day resolution window is extremely short, requiring either an existing secret negotiation to surface publicly or a rapid policy reversal from Iranian leadership
- Recent geopolitical tensions or cooperation levels between Iran and Western/regional powers would significantly influence likelihood of such an agreement materializing
- Any statement from Iran's Supreme Leader, Foreign Ministry, or Revolutionary Guard Corps contradicting or supporting unrestricted Hormuz passage would move probability materially
- Trading volume of $81,022 in 24 hours suggests moderate market interest but limited conviction, indicating uncertainty about resolution mechanisms or baseline conditions

Contracts:
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? — 12¢ Polymarket $87K (weight 100%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.363Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-may-31
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Iran%20agrees%20to%20unrestricted%20shipping%20through%20Hormuz%20by%20May%2031
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev