68% — Iran leader end of 2026
Leader: Mojtaba Khamenei at 68% · Polymarket 68% · 5 contracts · $113K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 66% probability indicates markets assess a significant likelihood that Iran's top leadership will change by year-end 2026. The assessment reflects the advanced age of current leaders, succession uncertainties, and potential geopolitical disruptions, though the timeframe remains relatively compressed. Upward pressure comes from health concerns and political instability; downward pressure from the historical resilience of Iran's power structure. The May 31 contract trading at 9 cents suggests markets weight near-term transition as unlikely, with most probability concentrated in later months. Key near-term developments—Iranian elections, health updates on senior officials, and regional escalation scenarios—will shape whether this probability tightens or widens substantially. The December 31 resolution date means almost no time for verification after events occur.

Key factors:
- Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's age (86 as of 2026) and historical succession mechanisms in Iran's governance structure
- Scheduled elections and political transitions in 2026 that could alter effective leadership without formal regime change
- Regional military escalation scenarios (Israel-Iran tensions, U.S. policy shifts) that could disrupt leadership continuity
- Market contract segmentation across May 31, June 30, and year-end suggests low confidence in near-term transition but material probability by December
- The 45-point gap between the leading outcome (66%) and runner-up (10%) indicates significant disagreement on alternative scenarios for end-2026 Iranian leadership

Contracts:
- Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei — 68¢ Polymarket $54K (weight 48%)
- Iran leader end of 2026?: Reza Pahlavi — 6¢ Polymarket $845 (weight 1%)
- Iran leader end of 2026?: No Head of State — 4¢ Polymarket $16K (weight 14%)
- Iran leader end of 2026?: Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf — 3¢ Polymarket $27K (weight 24%)
- Iran leader end of 2026?: Abbas Araghchi — 3¢ Polymarket $15K (weight 13%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.663Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "68% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iran-leader
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Iran%20leader%20end%20of%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev