31% — Iran leadership change by...
Leader: December 31 at 31% · Polymarket 31% · 2 contracts · $368K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 09:27:40 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability estimates the likelihood of Iran experiencing a leadership change by a specified date. The 15% level reflects current market expectations that such a transition is possible but not imminent. Recent contract pricing suggests markets are pricing in elevated geopolitical risk between the US and Iran, with related uncertainties about uranium enrichment, territorial control, and diplomatic resolution. The main drivers are ongoing nuclear negotiations, regional military tensions, and the potential for diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations. Key upcoming events include reported timelines for peace deal discussions (May 15 and May 31) and statements on uranium enrichment progress, which would provide concrete signals about whether internal Iranian political pressure might intensify or reduce.

Key factors:
- Related contracts show 38¢ pricing for June 30 peace deal prospects versus 5¢ for May 15, indicating market skepticism about near-term resolution
- Uranium enrichment and Kharg Island control contracts trading at single-digit to low double-digit cents suggest low immediate probability of major escalation
- Peace deal contract volumes exceed $289K daily, indicating active price discovery on US-Iran diplomatic outcomes that would directly affect leadership stability
- The 15% baseline sits between lowest crisis scenarios (5¢ for May 15 peace) and moderate escalation scenarios (38¢ for June 30 peace), suggesting conditional probability on escalation trajectory
- Absence of high-probability near-term leadership change contracts indicates markets do not expect imminent internal Iranian regime collapse from current conditions

Contracts:
- Iran leadership change by...?: December 31 — 31¢ Polymarket $59K (weight 16%)
- Iran leadership change by...?: June 30 — 6¢ Polymarket $310K (weight 84%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T09:20:07.603Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iran-leadership-change
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Iran%20leadership%20change%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev