20% — Iran military action against ___ by April 30
Polymarket 20% · 10 contracts · $1.2M volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:13:08 UTC

Contracts:
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — 3¢ Polymarket $763K (weight 61%)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — 18¢ Polymarket $269K (weight 22%)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? — 13¢ Polymarket $81K (weight 7%)
- Israel military action against Yemen by...?: June 30 — 31¢ Polymarket $72K (weight 6%)
- US military action against Cuba by...?: December 31 — 39¢ Polymarket $58K (weight 5%)
- Israel military action against Damascus by...?: June 30 — 14¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 0%)
- How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 10 — 16¢ Polymarket $568 (weight 0%)
- How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 8 — 29¢ Polymarket $50 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.753Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iran-military-action-against-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Iran%20military%20action%20against%20___%20by%20April%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev