20% — Will there be a US-Iran peace deal?
Kalshi 20% · 9 contracts · $13K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 02:47:23 UTC

Contracts:
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 17¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 32%)
- Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027 — 5¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 25%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 17%)
- Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition?: Yes — 3¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 16%)
- Will a new nuclear reactor be approved by Dec 31, 2026?: Grants license — 13¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 9%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 20, 2029 — 54¢ Kalshi $98 (weight 1%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 41¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 1%)
- Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with any country before Jan 20, 2029?: Before 2029 — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T02:20:49.275Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iran-peace-deal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20a%20US-Iran%20peace%20deal%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev