33% — Will there be a US-Iran peace deal?
Kalshi 30% · Polymarket 46% · 13 contracts · $435K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:32:03 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 16pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? — 22¢ Polymarket $313K (weight 72%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before July — 10¢ Kalshi $85K (weight 20%)
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? — 69¢ Polymarket $26K (weight 6%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before 2027 — 48¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 1%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before September — 23¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 1%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?: Before August — 18¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 0%)
- Will a new nuclear reactor be approved by Dec 31, 2026?: Grants license — 18¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 0%)
- Will Iran hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 22¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 0%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.996Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iran-peace-deal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20a%20US-Iran%20peace%20deal%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev