97% — Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Polymarket 97% · 1 contracts · $7K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 03:56:15 UTC

Why this matters:
This 90% probability reflects the market's assessment that Iran will qualify for and participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States. Iran has historically qualified for multiple World Cups, including 2018 and 2022, and currently competes in Asian qualifying matches for 2026. The main factors determining this probability are Iran's performance in the remaining AFC (Asian Football Confederation) qualifying matches and their competitive standing within their group. The critical upcoming event is the completion of AFC World Cup qualifying in late 2025, which will definitively determine which Asian nations advance to the tournament. Any major geopolitical disruptions or disqualifications would be exceptional but remain possible regulatory outcomes.

Key factors:
- Iran currently participates in active 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying under AFC regulations with scheduled matches through late 2025
- Iran's historical qualification rate shows participation in 5 of the last 6 World Cups (1998, 2006, 2014, 2018, 2022), indicating consistent competitive capacity in Asian qualifiers
- AFC qualifying format determines the 4-5 Asian spots for 2026; Iran's group standing and remaining fixtures directly impact advancement probability
- Potential disqualification or withdrawal due to geopolitical factors, while uncommon, remains a non-zero risk that could reduce qualification odds
- The final AFC qualifying matches concluding in November 2025 represent the definitive resolution point for this market

Contracts:
- Will Iran Play in the World Cup? — 97¢ Polymarket $7K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-05T23:20:12.239Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iran-play-fifa-world-cup
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Iran%20Play%20in%20the%202026%20FIFA%20World%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev