96% — Will Iran Play in the World Cup
Polymarket 96% · 1 contracts · $68K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 03:56:18 UTC

Why this matters:
This market is pricing a 95% probability that Iran will qualify for and participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, scheduled for June-July 2026 in the United States. Iran must finish in a qualifying position within their confederation (AFC) during the ongoing World Cup qualification rounds. The high probability reflects Iran's historical participation record—they've qualified for six of the last eight World Cups—and their relatively strong position in the current Asian qualification stage. The main uncertainty centers on Iran's recent performance trends, competition from other strong AFC teams, and the remaining qualifying matches over the next few months. The decisive factor will be the outcomes of remaining AFC qualification fixtures through late 2025 and early 2026, which will determine which teams advance. Iran currently occupies a qualifying position but faces ongoing competition from regional rivals.

Key factors:
- Iran's current standings in AFC World Cup qualifying group relative to qualification positions available
- Historical qualification success rate: Iran qualified in 6 of 8 World Cups since 2002
- Remaining AFC qualification matches schedule and Iran's performance requirements
- Strength of competing teams in Iran's qualifying group and overall AFC confederation
- Any unforeseen disruptions (political sanctions, team issues, or administrative bans affecting eligibility)

Contracts:
- Will Iran Play in the World Cup? — 96¢ Polymarket $68K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:09.023Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iran-play-world-cup
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Iran%20Play%20in%20the%20World%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev