24% — Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by... Kalshi 26% · Polymarket 23% · 14 contracts · $19.1M volume · high confidence Updated 2026-06-17 18:53:44 UTC Cross-venue gap: 3pp (Kalshi higher) Why this matters: This market reflects a 27% probability that Iran will be removed from the 2026 FIFA World Cup before or during the tournament. The market is pricing in geopolitical tensions, potential sanctions escalation, and FIFA's discretionary enforcement of competition rules as meaningful risks to Iran's participation. The primary drivers of this probability are ongoing U.S.-Iran relations and whether additional international sanctions target Iranian sports participation, alongside FIFA's enforcement of political or security-related exclusion criteria. The key catalyst will be any announcement from FIFA regarding Iran's eligibility status in the months leading up to the June 2026 tournament, particularly if new sanctions packages or diplomatic developments emerge that specifically impact Iranian national team participation. Current market consensus suggests participants view removal as unlikely but material enough to warrant meaningful probability allocation. Key factors: - U.S. sanctions policy toward Iran in 2025-2026 and whether new measures explicitly target sports participation or freeze Iranian football federation assets - FIFA's stated eligibility requirements and enforcement record regarding removal of national teams for geopolitical or security reasons versus domestic governance issues - Current diplomatic developments between Iran and the international community that could trigger emergency FIFA Council decisions before June 2026 - Iran's qualification status confirmation (the team must first qualify for the tournament; removal assumes successful qualification first) - Historical precedent: FIFA has suspended or removed nations primarily for internal governance failures (Zimbabwe, Kenya) rather than external geopolitical pressure, making removal a lower-probability event Contracts: - World Cup Winner : Argentina — 11¢ Polymarket $6.1M (weight 32%) - World Cup Winner : Portugal — 11¢ Polymarket $3.1M (weight 16%) - World Cup Winner : France — 18¢ Polymarket $2.6M (weight 14%) - World Cup Winner : Spain — 13¢ Polymarket $2.5M (weight 13%) - World Cup Winner : Netherlands — 4¢ Polymarket $1.5M (weight 8%) - World Cup Winner : England — 10¢ Polymarket $1.2M (weight 6%) - World Cup Winner : Germany — 6¢ Polymarket $1.1M (weight 6%) - World Cup Winner : Brazil — 7¢ Polymarket $755K (weight 4%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-17T18:20:22.081Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iran-removed-from-fifa-world-cup Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Iran%20removed%20from%20FIFA%20World%20Cup%20by... Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev