4% — Will there be a war with Iran?
Kalshi 4% · 3 contracts · $13K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 15:19:08 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes — 6¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 75%)
- Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?: Reza Pahlavi — 4¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 23%)
- Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027 — 3¢ Kalshi $315 (weight 2%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-22T14:20:50.623Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iran-war
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20a%20war%20with%20Iran%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev