16% — Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by... Polymarket 16% · 8 contracts · $1.0M volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:09 UTC Why this matters: This 18% probability reflects market expectations that the Iran-Israel-US conflict will be resolved by end-2026, with most resolution mechanisms concentrated in June. The relatively low percentage suggests markets view continued tension as more likely than diplomatic breakthrough or military conclusion within this timeframe. The probability is driven by two competing dynamics: near-term catalysts like potential leadership changes or uranium negotiations (reflected in the high-volume June contracts at 5-17%) versus the difficulty of achieving substantive de-escalation given current geopolitical positions. The June 30 deadline creates a natural pivot point—expiration of these near-term contracts will reveal whether any major developments occurred or whether the conflict trajectory extends beyond 2026. Key factors: - Three separate June 30 contracts (Kharg Island control, Iranian leadership change, uranium surrender) trade at 5-17%, suggesting June is viewed as a critical decision point with only modest probability of resolution - December contracts trade higher (uranium at 21%, leadership change at 28%), indicating markets assign greater likelihood to resolution over longer timeframes but still below 50% - The disparity between June and December contracts suggests markets expect either continuation of current tensions through mid-year or slow-moving negotiations rather than rapid escalation or breakthrough - High trading volume ($67-147K daily across top contracts) indicates genuine uncertainty rather than consensus, with significant capital backing multiple resolution scenarios - Uranium enrichment remains a central negotiation point, with December uranium surrender at 21% versus June at 17%, potentially reflecting extended diplomacy assumptions Contracts: - Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?: June 30 — 3¢ Polymarket $572K (weight 55%) - Iran leadership change by...?: June 30 — 6¢ Polymarket $316K (weight 31%) - Iran leadership change by...?: December 31 — 31¢ Polymarket $59K (weight 6%) - Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?: June 30 — 10¢ Polymarket $37K (weight 4%) - US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?: December 31 — 21¢ Polymarket $32K (weight 3%) - Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?: December 31 — 36¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 1%) - Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?: December 31 — 6¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 0%) - Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?: December 31 — 11¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.809Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Iran%20x%20Israel%2FUS%20conflict%20ends%20by... Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev