87% — Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 2.4M bpd Leader: At least 1.6M bpd at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 11 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-19 09:42:43 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract reflects market expectations that Iran will average at least 2.4 million barrels per day of crude oil production during June 2026, currently priced at 51% probability. Iran's crude output has been constrained by decades of sanctions, though recent diplomatic developments and sanctions relief have allowed production to fluctuate significantly. The current pricing suggests roughly even odds, with traders weighing Iran's capacity to sustain output above this threshold against risks from renewed sanctions pressure, technical maintenance, or geopolitical escalation. The June 2026 average will be finalized when official production data is reported by international agencies like the IEA or OPEC in early July 2026. Key uncertainty centers on whether Iran can maintain production momentum in the second half of the year, as contract prices for higher thresholds (3.8M bpd at 16%, 3.0M bpd at 27%) drop sharply, indicating markets assign significantly lower probability to sustained higher production levels. Key factors: - Iran's actual June 2026 crude production will be measured against IEA, OPEC, or similar official data releases in July 2026, establishing the factual basis for contract settlement - The 2.4M bpd threshold sits between the current leader (1.6M bpd at 51%) and mid-range levels (2.6M bpd at 43%), indicating market uncertainty about whether Iran sustains recent production gains or faces headwinds - Technical capacity at Iranian refineries and export infrastructure, combined with international sanctions regime status in mid-2026, will directly constrain maximum sustainable output - The steep probability drop across production thresholds (from 51% at 1.6M to 16% at 3.8M) suggests traders view sustained production above 2.6M bpd as increasingly unlikely - Geopolitical events between now and June—including sanctions policy changes, regional conflict escalation, or diplomatic breakthroughs—represent the primary variable that could shift production trajectories Contracts: - Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 1.6M bpd?: At least 1.6M bpd — 87¢ Kalshi $270 (weight 9%) - Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 1.8M bpd?: At least 1.8M bpd — 71¢ Kalshi $174 (weight 6%) - Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 2.0M bpd?: At least 2.0M bpd — 52¢ Kalshi $372 (weight 12%) - Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 2.2M bpd?: At least 2.2M bpd — 43¢ Kalshi $56 (weight 2%) - Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 2.8M bpd?: At least 2.8M bpd — 15¢ Kalshi $541 (weight 17%) - Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 2.6M bpd?: At least 2.6M bpd — 14¢ Kalshi $288 (weight 9%) - Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 3.0M bpd?: At least 3.0M bpd — 11¢ Kalshi $620 (weight 20%) - Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 3.6M bpd?: At least 3.6M bpd — 9¢ Kalshi $125 (weight 4%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T09:20:18.433Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/irancrude Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Iran%E2%80%99s%20average%20daily%20crude%20oil%20production%20for%20June%202026%20be%20at%20least%202.4M%20bpd Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev