3% — Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30
Polymarket 3% · 1 contracts · $765K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 09:50:23 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability estimates the chance that Iran's current government structure fundamentally collapses by June 30, 2026. The 7% assessment reflects markets pricing this as an unlikely but non-negligible scenario within 58 days. The probability would rise with evidence of mass civil unrest, military defection, or international intervention; it would fall if the regime consolidates control or external pressure eases. The key catalyst is the trajectory of domestic political stability over the next two months—any major escalation in protests, security force fractures, or external military action would immediately shift expectations. Markets show declining confidence as the timeframe extends (3% by May 31 versus 19% by end of 2027), suggesting most participants view regime collapse as possible but more likely a multi-year process than an imminent event.

Key factors:
- Current domestic unrest levels and protest organization capacity compared to historical episodes
- Military and security force cohesion—any reported defections, splits between IRGC factions, or loyalty shifts
- Regional military escalation involving Iran, which could destabilize internal control structures
- Evidence of succession disputes or loss of unified command at the highest governmental levels
- International military or economic intervention that demonstrably weakens regime enforcement capacity

Contracts:
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — 3¢ Polymarket $765K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iranian-regime-fall-june-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Iranian%20regime%20fall%20by%20June%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev