97% — Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes
Polymarket 97% · 1 contracts · $3K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 09:51:11 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects traders' assessment that the Iranian regime would survive a scenario involving U.S. military strikes—currently priced at 31%, meaning markets give it roughly a one-in-three chance of enduring such an event. The pricing sits between 28% and 33% across venues, suggesting moderate confidence in the regime's resilience despite hypothetical military pressure. Key drivers include assessments of Iranian military capabilities, regime institutional depth, and international support networks versus U.S. military superiority and logistical reach. The most immediate uncertainty centers on the timeframe through May 31, where related contracts show sharper price divergence. Longer-dated contracts (through 2027) trade higher, indicating traders view survival probability as improving with extended timelines. The 5-percentage-point gap between venues reflects genuine disagreement on regime durability under kinetic pressure rather than data arrival.

Key factors:
- Contract pricing divergence by timeframe: May 31 expiry at 5¢ (95% fall probability) versus 2027 expiry at 22¢ (78% fall probability) indicates fundamental disagreement on regime collapse speed
- Trading volume concentration: Highest liquidity ($678K in 24h volume) on the shortest-dated May 31 contract suggests near-term uncertainty dominates market pricing
- Cross-venue gap of 5 percentage points with Kalshi consistently higher indicates systematic differences in how venues' trader bases model regime institutional resilience
- Related military scenario pricing: U.S. invasion probability at 34¢ suggests traders view invasion and regime survival as partially independent outcomes
- Temporal assumption testing: The extreme volatility between 1-month and 12-month survival probabilities reveals heavy dependence on assumption about conflict duration and intensity

Contracts:
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? — 97¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Iranian%20regime%20survive%20U.S.%20military%20strikes
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev