19% — Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...
Leader: July 31 at 19% · Polymarket 19% · 2 contracts · $6K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:40:27 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is pricing a 9% probability that Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026—meaning traders assign roughly a 91% chance the withdrawal extends past that date. The probability reflects expectations around ongoing military operations, ceasefire negotiations, and diplomatic timelines. Factors driving the current level include the duration of the conflict, stated withdrawal conditions from Israeli leadership, and negotiation progress with Lebanese and international parties. Movement in this probability would likely follow concrete developments such as formal ceasefire announcements, verified troop reductions, or statements from Israeli military leadership on withdrawal timelines. The May 31 contract trading at 3% suggests markets view near-term withdrawal as especially unlikely, with the June 30 outcome representing the more plausible early-exit scenario.

Key factors:
- Israeli military and government statements on withdrawal conditions and timelines
- Status of ceasefire or de-escalation negotiations involving Israel, Lebanon, and international mediators
- Reported troop levels and military activity intensity on the ground in Lebanon
- Public commitments or agreements regarding withdrawal deadlines from Israeli defense officials
- Historical pattern of Israeli military operations in Lebanon and typical duration before drawdown

Contracts:
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?: July 31 — 19¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 21%)
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?: June 30 — 10¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 79%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.202Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Israel%20withdraws%20from%20Lebanon%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev