25% — Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...
Leader: June 30 at 25% · Polymarket 25% · 3 contracts · $112K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:36:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This prediction estimates a 17% chance that Israel and Hezbollah will finalize a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026—roughly one week from the contract date. The current low probability reflects the absence of active, formalized negotiations or announced framework agreements as of mid-May 2026. Resolution depends primarily on whether diplomatic channels produce a signed, durable settlement within the narrow timeframe. An extension of the deadline or ongoing ceasefire without formal agreement would likely lower the probability further, while public announcements of negotiation progress or peace framework details could raise it. The May 31 deadline creates binary uncertainty: either a permanent deal materializes in the coming days, or it does not.

Key factors:
- Absence of publicly announced peace negotiations or signed framework agreement as of late May 2026
- Historical pattern of Israel-Hezbollah tensions typically resolving through ceasefires rather than permanent formal peace treaties
- The extremely tight seven-day window leaves minimal time for complex diplomatic processes including legislative approval in both parties
- Monitoring for any official statements from Israeli government, Lebanese authorities, or international mediators about imminent deal finalization
- Definition specificity: whether 'permanent peace deal' requires formal treaty, mutual recognition, or could include durable ceasefire arrangements

Contracts:
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?: June 30 — 25¢ Polymarket $15K (weight 13%)
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?: June 15 — 18¢ Polymarket $17K (weight 15%)
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?: May 31 — 5¢ Polymarket $81K (weight 72%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.766Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Israel%20x%20Hezbollah%20permanent%20peace%20deal%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev