16% — Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...
Leader: June 30 at 16% · Polymarket 16% · 2 contracts · $364K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:12:21 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Israel and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026—currently estimated at 17%, roughly 1 in 6 odds. The low probability reflects the substantial barriers to negotiation: active military tensions, proxy conflicts, and the absence of direct diplomatic channels. The gap between the May 31 contract (4%) and June 30 contract (17%) suggests markets expect minimal progress in the next three weeks, with somewhat higher but still unlikely potential over the following month. Resolution will depend on whether serious multilateral negotiations materialize, any de-escalation of regional proxy activity, or third-party mediation breakthroughs. The upcoming months will likely show whether geopolitical momentum shifts toward dialogue or further away from it.

Key factors:
- No active direct Israeli-Iranian peace negotiations are currently documented as ongoing as of May 2026
- The price differential between May 31 (4%) and June 30 (17%) indicates markets assign minimal probability to near-term breakthroughs
- Trading volume is concentrated in the June 30 contract ($8,539 in 24h volume vs $14,892 on May 31), suggesting this is where forecasters expect any resolution signal to emerge
- Historical Israeli-Iranian relations show no precedent for bilateral permanent peace agreements, making any deal structurally novel and contingent on major third-party involvement
- Regional proxy conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon would need to show documented de-escalation to support higher peace-deal probability

Contracts:
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?: June 30 — 16¢ Polymarket $78K (weight 21%)
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?: May 31 — 3¢ Polymarket $287K (weight 79%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.708Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Israel%20x%20Iran%20permanent%20peace%20deal%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev