26% — Will Likud be a part of the next government in Israel Kalshi 26% · 19 contracts · $205 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-26 11:03:34 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the likelihood that Likud, Israel's largest right-wing party led by Benjamin Netanyahu, will be included in the next government coalition. At 41%, the market suggests roughly even odds for Likud's participation, reflecting political uncertainty in Israel's fractious parliament. The probability is shaped by two main dynamics: first, Likud's traditional role as a major coalition player due to its size and electoral strength, which pulls the probability higher; second, potential political realignment or court-related developments affecting Netanyahu's viability as a coalition partner, which could lower it. The probability will likely shift significantly when elections are called or scheduled, when coalition negotiations begin following any electoral results, or if major legal or political developments affect Netanyahu's status. Comparison contracts show Blue and White at 53% and smaller parties like Otzma Yehudit at 33%, suggesting the market is pricing substantial uncertainty about coalition composition. Key factors: - Likud's historical position as Israel's largest right-wing party typically gives it coalition leverage, but 41% pricing indicates market uncertainty about this assumption holding - Netanyahu's ongoing legal proceedings and potential disqualification represent a concrete factor that could materially reduce Likud's inclusion probability - Blue and White's 53% probability versus Likud's 41% suggests market expectation of a government excluding or sidelining Likud, conditional on specific coalition formation - Contract volumes ($69-71 24h vol across multiple parties) indicate meaningful liquidity but also suggest these probabilities remain genuinely uncertain rather than consensus - The spread between related contracts (Noam 41%, Otzma Yehudit 33%, Shas 38%) indicates traders are differentiated coalition scenarios rather than pricing all outcomes similarly Contracts: - Will Noam be a part of the next government in Israel?: Noam — 4¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 98%) - Will Hadash–Ta’al be a part of the next government in Israel?: Hadash–Ta’al — 3¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 2%) - Will Amcha Yisrael be a part of the next government in Israel?: Amcha Yisrael — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Blue and White be a part of the next government in Israel?: Blue and White — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will The Democrats be a part of the next government in Israel?: The Democrats — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Likud be a part of the next government in Israel?: Likud — 38¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will New Economic Party be a part of the next government in Israel?: New Economic Party — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Otzma Yehudit be a part of the next government in Israel?: Otzma Yehudit — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-26T09:21:03.408Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/israelgovt Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Likud%20be%20a%20part%20of%20the%20next%20government%20in%20Israel Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev