9% — Israeli forces enter Beirut by... Polymarket 9% · 8 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-19 13:10:48 UTC Why this matters: This contract predicts whether Israeli forces will enter Beirut by a specified date. The 11% probability reflects market assessment that direct Israeli military entry into Lebanon's capital remains unlikely in the near term, though not impossible. The main factors keeping probability low are the current ceasefire framework, international pressure against escalation, and the costs of urban warfare. However, the probability isn't negligible because escalation risks persist—Hezbollah provocation, Israeli security concerns, or regional instability could trigger military action. Key upcoming indicators include ceasefire compliance reports, Israeli defense ministry statements, and Hezbollah activity levels. Any significant cross-border attack or deterioration of the ceasefire arrangement could substantially increase the probability. Resolution depends on whether Israeli military operations cross into Beirut's boundaries before the contract deadline. Key factors: - Current ceasefire status and enforcement mechanisms between Israel and Lebanese forces, with compliance tracking as the primary real-time indicator - Hezbollah military activity and cross-border incidents, particularly rocket or drone launches that could trigger Israeli response - Israeli government statements on red lines and military objectives, including official defense ministry assessments of Beirut entry necessity - International diplomatic pressure and constraints, including US position on escalation and regional coalition alignment - Urban combat assessment and military doctrine—Israeli operational planning for Beirut entry costs versus strategic objectives Contracts: - Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?: December 31 — 8¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 50%) - Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?: June 30 — 4¢ Polymarket $638 (weight 26%) - María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?: June 30 — 6¢ Polymarket $350 (weight 14%) - Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by...?: June 30 — 21¢ Polymarket $108 (weight 4%) - Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?: June 30 — 4¢ Polymarket $85 (weight 3%) - Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?: July 31 — 9¢ Polymarket $40 (weight 2%) - Will Russia enter Shevchenko by...?: June 30 — 16¢ Polymarket $9 (weight 0%) - Will Russia enter Svitle by...?: June 30 — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/israeli-forces-enter-beirut Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Israeli%20forces%20enter%20Beirut%20by... Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev