51% — Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Leader: Likud at 51% · Polymarket 51% · 5 contracts · $177 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 00:59:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations for which coalition or party will win the most seats in Israel's next legislative election, with Likud currently priced slightly ahead of the Together bloc. The outcome depends primarily on voter turnout patterns, recent polling shifts, and the distribution of undecided voters across Israel's fragmented political landscape. The main driver of uncertainty is the timing and final results of the election itself—currently scheduled but subject to political developments that could trigger early dissolution of the Knesset. Secondary factors include coalition-formation dynamics after the election, as the largest bloc doesn't automatically form government. Trading volume is concentrated in the Likud and Together contracts, suggesting the market views this as essentially a two-way race, with minimal probability assigned to smaller parties.

Key factors:
- Likud is priced 8 percentage points above Together despite polling showing closer margins; this gap may reflect market assumptions about coalition mechanics or turnout
- Combined probability for Likud and Together exceeds 90%, indicating the market assigns negligible chance to smaller parties winning the most seats
- Low 24-hour trading volume on Likud (vs. Together at $63) despite higher odds suggests less active price discovery on the frontrunner
- No recent polling data release date is noted, leaving the contract exposed to unexpected survey results that could shift probabilities materially
- Election date confirmation and any political instability that might trigger early elections or delay voting are primary catalysts for resolution

Contracts:
- Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Likud — 51¢ Polymarket $58 (weight 33%)
- Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Together — 44¢ Polymarket $119 (weight 67%)
- Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Otzma Yehudit — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Israeli Legislative Election Winner: The Democrats — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-25T00:20:07.167Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/israeli-legislative-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Israeli%20Legislative%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev