66% — Israeli parliament dissolved by...
Leader: July 31 at 66% · Polymarket 66% · 3 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 22:18:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Israeli parliament dissolved by...?: July 31 — 66¢ Polymarket $488 (weight 7%)
- Israeli parliament dissolved by...?: June 30 — 59¢ Polymarket $7K (weight 92%)
- Israeli parliament dissolved by...?: June 15 — 30¢ Polymarket $69 (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T21:20:11.999Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "66% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/israeli-parliament-dissolved
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Israeli%20parliament%20dissolved%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev