30% — 2026 James Beard Award for Best New Restaurant
Leader: Adrian Torres at 30% · Kalshi 30% · 17 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 23:40:20 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 42% probability indicates that a specific restaurant has roughly 2-in-5 odds of winning the 2026 James Beard Award for Best New Restaurant based on current market pricing. This probability reflects limited trading activity—only 20 contracts across Kalshi with modest daily volume—suggesting relatively thin liquidity and uncertainty among bettors. The award winner will be determined when the James Beard Foundation announces results, likely in spring 2026. Key factors moving this probability would include media coverage of finalist restaurants, chef reputation and press mentions, any scandal or controversy affecting contenders, and industry insider sentiment as the voting deadline approaches. The relative thinness of trading activity means individual contract shifts can move the headline price meaningfully, so the current level should be interpreted cautiously as a gauge of incomplete market conviction rather than a consensus forecast.

Key factors:
- Only 20 contracts traded across all Best New Restaurant outcomes, indicating thin liquidity and limited confidence in price discovery
- The leading contract trades at 42¢ while the runner-up sits at 35¢, suggesting modest separation between top contenders rather than clear market consensus
- Daily trading volume averages $320 or less per related contract, implying minimal information flow and sporadic buyer/seller participation
- The James Beard Award voting and announcement timeline will be the primary event determining resolution, with no intermediate data points to adjust probability
- Related contracts across different James Beard categories (Outstanding Bar, Emerging Chef) show prices clustered between 8¢ and 35¢, reflecting uncertainty across multiple restaurant-related awards

Contracts:
- 2026 James Beard Award for Emerging Chef presented by S.Pellegrino® Sparkling Natural Mineral Water?: Adrian Torres — 30¢ Kalshi $111 (weight 5%)
- 2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Restaurant presented by Acqua Panna® Natural Spring Water?: Kalaya — 25¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 9%)
- 2026 James Beard Award for Best New Bar?: Loma — 21¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 9%)
- 2026 James Beard Award for Emerging Chef presented by S.Pellegrino® Sparkling Natural Mineral Water?: Bailey Sullivan — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Bar?: Smuggler's Cove — 19¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 9%)
- 2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Bakery?: Cultured — 19¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 9%)
- 2026 James Beard Award for Best New Bar?: Clemente Bar — 18¢ Kalshi $160 (weight 7%)
- 2026 James Beard Award for Emerging Chef presented by S.Pellegrino® Sparkling Natural Mineral Water?: Fátima Juárez — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 9 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T23:20:07.437Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/jamesbeard
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2026%20James%20Beard%20Award%20for%20Best%20New%20Restaurant
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev