93% — Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...
Polymarket 93% · 1 contracts · $5K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:05:36 UTC

Contracts:
- Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?: May 31 — 93¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-23T19:20:12.520Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/jerome-powell-departs-as-fed-chair
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Jerome%20Powell%20departs%20as%20Fed%20Chair%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev