37% — Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…
Polymarket 37% · 1 contracts · $26 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 09:32:27 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market estimates that Jerome Powell will exit the Federal Reserve Board entirely by December 31, 2026—not just leave the Fed Chair role. Powell currently serves as Chair with a term extending to 2026, and Board membership involves separate statutory considerations. The 38% probability is notably higher than the sub-5% odds on earlier exits (May 30), suggesting markets price in some near-term risk but view a full exit by year-end as moderately unlikely. Key drivers include whether Powell faces pressure to resign versus complete a term, potential successor confirmation timelines, and political dynamics around Federal Reserve leadership. The most concrete near-term catalyst is any formal announcement regarding Powell's future plans, as well as legislative or executive branch actions affecting Fed governance.

Key factors:
- Powell's current Fed Chair term structure and whether completion of that role involves automatic Board departure
- Historical precedent for sitting Fed Chairs remaining on the Board after stepping down from the Chair position
- Political pressure and confirmation speed for potential Fed Chair successors, which could influence Powell's timeline
- Any legislative changes to Fed Board structure or term length that could trigger earlier departures
- Market differentiation between 'Chair exit' contracts (77-97¢) versus 'Board exit' contracts (4-39¢), indicating significant structural uncertainty

Contracts:
- Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?: December 31 — 37¢ Polymarket $26 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/jerome-powell-out-of-fed-board
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev