35% — Will Jerome Powell be removed as Fed Chair?
Kalshi 35% · 9 contracts · $588 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:03 UTC

Why this matters:
Jerome Powell has not been removed from his position as a member of the Federal Reserve board. Prediction markets currently show only a 12% probability that the President will attempt to remove him from his role as Chair or Board member before January 1, 2027.

Key factors:
- 12% chance of firing attempt
- 45% chance of resignation before 2027
- Fed independence expectations
- Stable Fed board status

Contracts:
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 7¢ Kalshi $317 (weight 54%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 46¢ Kalshi $96 (weight 16%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 15¢ Kalshi $95 (weight 16%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 35¢ Kalshi $79 (weight 13%)
- Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2027 — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.628Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/jerome-powell-removed
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jerome%20Powell%20be%20removed%20as%20Fed%20Chair%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev