29% — Will Jerome Powell be removed as Fed Chair?
Kalshi 29% · 7 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-26 06:33:41 UTC

Why this matters:
There is currently a 37% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will no longer be on the Fed Board by the end of 2026, while the prospect of him being fired significantly earlier remains minimal. Markets consider the likelihood of Trump attempting to remove him from his position by July 31 to be extremely low at just 1%. Concerns regarding emergency Federal Reserve rate cuts are also muted, with a 92% market-implied probability that zero emergency cuts will occur.

Key factors:
- Powell departure probability
- Trump firing risk
- Zero emergency rate cuts expectation
- Fed independence stability

Contracts:
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 22¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 71%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2027 — 62¢ Kalshi $535 (weight 11%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Jan 31, 2028 — 80¢ Kalshi $455 (weight 10%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 18¢ Kalshi $179 (weight 4%)
- Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027 — 6¢ Kalshi $170 (weight 4%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-26T06:20:49.204Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/jerome-powell-removed
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jerome%20Powell%20be%20removed%20as%20Fed%20Chair%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev