19% — Will Jerome Powell be removed as Fed Chair?
Kalshi 21% · Polymarket 11% · 18 contracts · $1.8M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-09-20 15:24:58 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 10pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?" 71¢; kalshi "Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?" 75¢; kalshi "Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?" 39¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.

Key factors:
- 10% probability of exit by Jan 2027
- 3% chance of DOJ investigation
- High institutional stability
- Market-implied confidence in tenure

Contracts:
- Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027? — 5¢ Kalshi $1.3M (weight 72%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? — 10¢ Kalshi $200K (weight 11%)
- Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?: December 31 — 19¢ Polymarket $161K (weight 9%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026? — 5¢ Kalshi $31K (weight 2%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026? — 39¢ Kalshi $27K (weight 1%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026? — 5¢ Kalshi $17K (weight 1%)
- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026? — 71¢ Kalshi $16K (weight 1%)
- Will it be reported that the DOJ reopens or initiates a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell before Jan 1, 2027? — 3¢ Kalshi $16K (weight 1%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-20T06:44:51.816Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/jerome-powell-removed
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jerome%20Powell%20be%20removed%20as%20Fed%20Chair%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev