95% — How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Apr 18, 2026 Leader: At least 200000 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 8 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-30 00:18:39 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability represents the chance that initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, 2026 will fall within a specific range. The prediction reflects current labor market conditions and expectations about employment trends. Market participants are split on this outcome, with Kalshi traders pricing it 10 percentage points higher than Polymarket traders, suggesting some disagreement about baseline employment stability. The final claims number will be released by the Department of Labor on a scheduled date, providing the definitive resolution. Key factors driving this probability include recent monthly employment reports, broader economic growth trends, and seasonal adjustments that typically apply to weekly claims data. Any significant shift in business hiring patterns or economic shocks would alter the probability materially. Key factors: - The actual weekly jobless claims figure released by the Department of Labor will determine the outcome; the data point has a precise, verifiable value - Seasonal adjustment patterns for mid-April historically show typical volatility ranges that frame baseline expectations - Recent monthly employment reports and hiring trends in the weeks prior would signal whether claims are likely to trend higher or lower than the baseline - The 10 percentage point gap between venues suggests material disagreement about which range is most likely, indicating genuine uncertainty among traders - Economic data releases between now and the official publication date could shift expectations about labor market conditions Contracts: - How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jun 6, 2026?: At least 200000 — 95¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 0%) - How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jun 6, 2026?: At least 205000 — 87¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) - How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jun 6, 2026?: At least 210000 — 82¢ Kalshi $405 (weight 9%) - How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jun 6, 2026?: At least 215000 — 71¢ Kalshi $772 (weight 17%) - How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jun 6, 2026?: At least 220000 — 45¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 63%) - How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jun 6, 2026?: At least 225000 — 33¢ Kalshi $510 (weight 11%) - How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jun 6, 2026?: At least 230000 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jun 6, 2026?: At least 235000 — 5¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-11T01:20:12.452Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/joblessclaims Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20initial%20jobless%20claims%20will%20there%20be%20the%20week%20ending%20Apr%2018%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev