86% — Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.4%
Leader: Above 1.1% at 86% · Kalshi 86% · 10 contracts · $331 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 00:54:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.1%?: Above 1.1% — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.6%?: Above 1.6% — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.9%?: Above 1.9% — 50¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 6%)
- Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.1%?: Above 2.1% — 34¢ Kalshi $32 (weight 10%)
- Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.5%?: Above 2.5% — 26¢ Kalshi $242 (weight 73%)
- Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.2%?: Above 1.2% — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.5%?: Above 1.5% — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.3%?: Above 1.3% — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-22T19:20:39.252Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/jpcpiyoy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Japan%20inflation%20rate%20YoY%20for%20April%202026%20be%20above%201.4%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev