39% — Will Japan balance of trade for March 2026 be above 1200B JPY
Polymarket 19% · Kalshi 47% · 20 contracts · $3K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 17:26:08 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 28pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: European Union — 10¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 11%)
- Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 130.0B USD?: Above 130.0B USD — 7¢ Kalshi $413 (weight 9%)
- When will Trump announce a new trade deal?: Before Jun 1, 2026 — 33¢ Kalshi $257 (weight 8%)
- Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 40.0B USD?: Above 40.0B USD — 89¢ Kalshi $223 (weight 8%)
- Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 22¢ Kalshi $201 (weight 8%)
- Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China before Jan 20, 2029?: Before 2029 — 36¢ Kalshi $197 (weight 8%)
- Will Donald Trump visit Japan before Jan 1, 2027?: Japan — 46¢ Kalshi $140 (weight 7%)
- Will Japan qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: Japan — 7¢ Kalshi $117 (weight 7%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/jptradebal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Japan%20balance%20of%20trade%20for%20March%202026%20be%20above%201200B%20JPY
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev