16% — Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026
Kalshi 16% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-09-20 18:11:57 UTC

Why this matters:
This market measures whether Justice Democrats-endorsed candidates will win more than 3 federal primary elections in contests held on or after June 25, 2026. Currently priced at 61%, the probability reflects moderate confidence in multiple primary victories. The outcomes become increasingly unlikely at higher thresholds: above 4 at 32%, above 6 at 17%, and above 7 at just 7%. Justice Democrats' track record in recent cycles, candidate quality in targeted races, and turnout patterns in late-June primaries will determine success rates. The resolution depends entirely on primary results across multiple states through the election calendar's completion, with outcomes becoming clearer as specific primary dates arrive and results are reported.

Key factors:
- Justice Democrats' historical primary win rate and endorsement hit rate in 2024 and prior cycles establishes a baseline expectation for 2026 performance
- Number of viable Justice Democrats-endorsed candidates actually competing in primaries scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 directly constrains the maximum possible wins
- Turnout levels and demographic composition in late-June primaries differ from earlier contests, potentially favoring or hindering progressive candidates
- Margin pricing (61% for >3, 32% for >4, 17% for >6, 7% for >7) suggests most contract holders expect 4-5 total wins rather than substantially higher numbers
- Concentration of remaining June primaries in specific states or district types will determine whether endorsed candidates face favorable or unfavorable matchups

Contracts:
- Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?: Above 7 — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-18T07:20:51.673Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/justicedemwin
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20total%20count%20of%20candidates%20endorsed%20by%20Justice%20Democrats%20who%20win%20a%202026%20federal%20primary%20election%20scheduled%20on%20or%20after%20June%2025%2C%202026%20be%20above%207%20primary%20elections%20scheduled%20on%20or%20after%20June%2025%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev