7% — Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Polymarket 6% · 6 contracts · $65 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 15:17:38 UTC

Why this matters:
This 13% probability represents the market-implied chance that a specific candidate wins the Kansas Democratic Senate primary. The lean probability reflects a competitive field where multiple candidates remain viable, with no frontrunner commanding consensus. The current price is driven by candidate fundraising totals, polling data within the state, and endorsements from established Democratic figures. The primary election date will definitively resolve this contract, eliminating uncertainty about the actual winner. Market participants are weighing factors like name recognition among Kansas Democrats, campaign organization strength, and messaging alignment with the party base in a state where Democrats face structural headwinds in the general election.

Key factors:
- Candidate fundraising disclosures and cash-on-hand compared to rivals
- Recent public polling of likely Kansas Democratic primary voters
- Endorsements from sitting Kansas Democratic officials and national party figures
- Voter registration trends and turnout expectations among Democratic primary electorate
- Campaign organization indicators, including field staff presence and voter contact operations

Contracts:
- Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Sandy Spidel Neumann — 4¢ Polymarket $39 (weight 38%)
- Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Christy Davis — 12¢ Polymarket $26 (weight 34%)
- Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Michael Soetaert — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Anne Parelkar — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Sharice Davids — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)
- Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Patrick Schmidt — 8¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 7%)

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Kansas%20Democratic%20Senate%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev