37% — Kash Patel out by...
Polymarket 38% · 3 contracts · $25K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 21:10:24 UTC

Why this matters:
This 38% probability reflects market expectation that Kash Patel will leave his position as FBI Director before a specified date (likely early June 2026). The market is pricing in meaningful but minority-level risk, suggesting traders see valid reasons for departure—whether through resignation, removal, or transition—but assess continuation as more likely. Key drivers include political developments affecting his tenure, personnel changes within the administration, and the inherent turnover rate for FBI leadership. The most concrete upcoming resolution point appears to be early June 2026, based on active contract pricing. Polymarket contracts show slightly higher probability (39%) than Kalshi (37%), a modest 2-point divergence suggesting reasonable consensus rather than sharp disagreement across venues.

Key factors:
- Kash Patel's current tenure stability and any public statements about his plans from him or administration officials
- Broader political circumstances that might necessitate or prompt FBI Director changes, including congressional oversight activities or investigations
- Historical turnover rate and average tenure length for FBI Directors in similar political environments
- Volume concentration: the most-traded Kalshi contract (17¢) focuses on before June 1, providing a specific resolution mechanism
- Cross-venue probability spread of only 2 percentage points indicates limited arbitrage opportunity and relatively stable market consensus

Contracts:
- Kash Patel out by...?: June 30 — 32¢ Polymarket $11K (weight 35%)
- Kash Patel out by...?: May 31 — 17¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 34%)
- Kash Patel out by...?: December 31 — 65¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 31%)

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/kash-patel-out
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Kash%20Patel%20out%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev