51% — Kash Patel out by...
Leader: December 31 at 51% · Polymarket 51% · 2 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 15:23:21 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 38% probability reflects market expectation that Kash Patel will leave his position as FBI Director before a specified date (likely early June 2026). The market is pricing in meaningful but minority-level risk, suggesting traders see valid reasons for departure—whether through resignation, removal, or transition—but assess continuation as more likely. Key drivers include political developments affecting his tenure, personnel changes within the administration, and the inherent turnover rate for FBI leadership. The most concrete upcoming resolution point appears to be early June 2026, based on active contract pricing. Polymarket contracts show slightly higher probability (39%) than Kalshi (37%), a modest 2-point divergence suggesting reasonable consensus rather than sharp disagreement across venues.

Key factors:
- Kash Patel's current tenure stability and any public statements about his plans from him or administration officials
- Broader political circumstances that might necessitate or prompt FBI Director changes, including congressional oversight activities or investigations
- Historical turnover rate and average tenure length for FBI Directors in similar political environments
- Volume concentration: the most-traded Kalshi contract (17¢) focuses on before June 1, providing a specific resolution mechanism
- Cross-venue probability spread of only 2 percentage points indicates limited arbitrage opportunity and relatively stable market consensus

Contracts:
- Kash Patel out by...?: December 31 — 51¢ Polymarket $504 (weight 13%)
- Kash Patel out by...?: June 30 — 7¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 87%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/kash-patel-out
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Kash%20Patel%20out%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev