12% — Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Jul 1, 2026 Leader: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 12% · Kalshi 12% · 2 contracts · $309 volume · low confidence Updated 2026-09-23 00:58:47 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectation that Kash Patel will leave his role as FBI Director before December 1, 2026—currently assessed at 14%, suggesting markets view his departure as unlikely but non-negligible. The relatively low probability likely reflects Patel's recent appointment and stated commitment to the role, though removal could occur through resignation, firing, or a change in administration. Key factors influencing this assessment include his relationship with political leadership, any major controversies or personnel disputes at the FBI, congressional pressure or confirmation challenges, and broader shifts in executive branch leadership. The timeframe captures potential departures through the end of 2026, making it sensitive to unexpected political developments or institutional conflicts that could accelerate an exit. Key factors: - Patel's tenure length and track record of retention in previous high-profile positions - Occurrence of major scandals, investigative failures, or internal FBI conflicts that could trigger resignation or removal pressure - Changes in presidential or congressional leadership that could alter his political standing or role - Public statements or evidence of conflict between Patel and his direct superiors or the administration - Market contract volume and pricing gaps across different departure-date thresholds (Dec 1 vs Nov 1 suggests marginal uncertainty about timing) Contracts: - Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 12¢ Kalshi $235 (weight 76%) - Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 6¢ Kalshi $74 (weight 24%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-23T00:20:49.800Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/kashout Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kash%20Patel%20leaves%20as%20FBI%20Director%20before%20Jul%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev