25% — Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Jul 1, 2026
Leader: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 25% · Kalshi 25% · 4 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-28 19:37:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 45% probability that Kash Patel will leave his position as FBI Director before August 1, 2026. The pricing reflects uncertainty about his tenure stability, with notably lower probabilities for near-term departures (17% by June 1, 37% by July 1) and higher probability for departure by end of 2026 (68%). The current level suggests mixed sentiment: markets see departure as plausible but not the base case. Key drivers include potential political developments, confirmation dynamics, or institutional pressures that could alter his position. The progression of contract prices reveals markets treat imminent departures as unlikely but increasing odds over a longer timeframe suggests meaningful conditional risks exist beyond the next two months.

Key factors:
- Patel's confirmation date and any Senate friction during or after confirmation hearings would directly affect tenure expectations
- Political or legal developments involving Patel personally could accelerate departure odds
- Institutional conflicts within the FBI or executive branch could trigger resignation or removal
- The contract-price gradient (17% by Jun 1 vs 68% by Dec 31) indicates markets see June-July departures as low-probability but attach rising risk to later periods
- Volume concentration in the Aug 1 contract ($11,165 24h) versus May 31 contract suggests traders are hedging against mid-summer uncertainty rather than immediate removal

Contracts:
- Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 25¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 71%)
- Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 18¢ Kalshi $366 (weight 13%)
- Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 14¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 0%)
- Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $474 (weight 16%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-28T19:20:51.465Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/kashout
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kash%20Patel%20leaves%20as%20FBI%20Director%20before%20Jul%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev