25% — Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Dec 1, 2026 Leader: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 25% · Kalshi 25% · 3 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-28 19:30:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets estimate a 49% chance that Kash Patel exits his FBI Director role before December 1, 2026—roughly seven months from now. This probability reflects uncertainty about his tenure stability in the current political environment. The assessment hinges on factors including his relationship with the administration, congressional dynamics, and any potential investigations or controversies. The market shows lower probabilities for earlier exits (20% by October 1, 32% by November 1), suggesting traders expect either continued stability or departure closer to year-end if it occurs. Significant political shifts, personnel changes at the White House, or disclosed issues involving the FBI leadership could materially shift these odds in either direction. The differing probabilities across timeframes indicate markets are pricing in time as a stabilizing factor rather than expecting imminent departure. Key factors: - Patel's stated tenure expectations and any public signals about duration of service from him or the appointing administration - Congressional or media scrutiny specifically targeting his leadership, decisions, or conduct at the FBI - Changes in White House personnel or policy priorities that could affect FBI Director stability - The relative scarcity of FBI Director departures under normal circumstances versus recent tenure volatility in that role - Any scheduled Senate confirmations, oversight hearings, or inspector general reports that could affect his position before December 1 Contracts: - Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 25¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 85%) - Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 18¢ Kalshi $366 (weight 15%) - Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 14¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-28T19:20:51.438Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/kashout-26jul Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kash%20Patel%20be%20out%20as%20FBI%20Director%20before%20Dec%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev